I did not understand the new year's rally at all. The fundamentals of the economy start with housing, which leads to consumer spending. Both are dropping with the radically down holiday retail numbers. And the first thing that happens in New Year's is the market rallies.
When the DOW went over 9k, I just couldn't understand it. I think the true value is somewhere around 4,000. Whenever I hear people say, "Now is the time to buy stocks" I just cannot understand from what angle this perspective comes from. Job losses, plummeting house prices and decreased consumer spending does not spell a market recovery any time soon. Markets on the bottom stay low and flat for a while - there is no instant jump to higher numbers. Market tops hold briefly, but bottoms stay low for a really long time.
I would wait for the dow to hit 4,000 before I would think it has hit bottom.
Job losses are less resilient than housing. It's like the final whiplash of a bad economy, and the crazy part is job losses are increasing. At this rate, the U.S. should hit double-digits in no time. 2008 was the worst job loss year since 1945 (2.6 million jobs) and it is accelerating and that means double digits in no time.
I can't believe a single person ever voted for George Bush, especially in the 2nd term.
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Hi Gary,
I'm a little off topic here, but could you please make a post and elaborate on the email that Pictage sent out today about the "VPS, LLC vs. Pictage, INC." lawsuit?
After a little research it seems that Pictage is only one of many that are being pursued. I can't imagine that something as general as posting images online for sale could be patented. It seems to me that is just the way business is handled these days. Isn't everything sold online done in this fashion? What exactly is able to be patented?
I wanted to ask you because I know you've done extensive patent work with your products.
Thanks,
Kelly
Pictage has some of the most incompetent staff I've ever dealt with.
First off George Bush is a FXXXING AXXCLOWN.
The market is still in a downtrend and the Bear market will worsen considerably. A agree with Nouriel Roubini who has called this whole disater to the T. 2009 will suck ass and the Dow at 4000 to 5000 and the S&P 500 at 500 to 600 is a real possibility. I believe the markets will go to these levels even with the Plunge Protection Team doing everything to stop the decent. When there's blood on the streets it's time to buy, but right now is not the time!!!!
Gary, I have no idea what the answer to this question is. But my first immediate thought to whether your blog title even matters is "what was the population of the US in 1945?"
Maybe it's the same (relatively speaking) and then you may have a good point. But if the population has greatly increased in the last 60 years - something that seems likely - then this could be a little intellectually dishonest.
Bobby, you are correct, this is the highest percentage in 16 years.
On a plus note of the people employed, income was up 3.7%
Weekly hours worked is down, which is a forecaster of future unemployment (companies cut hours first and then lay off), we will prob peak at around high 9, maybe low 10%
Obama is focusing on job growth, also these bad numbers will just help a large stimulus to go through
Found the answer.
1945: 139,928,165
2009: 303,824,640
As you can see, the US has DOUBLED since 1945. In more intellectually honest terms (percentages), the U.S. lost 1.9% of its payroll employment in 2008. In 1945 it was 6.6%. As you can see, 1945 had more than TRIPLE the job loss of 2008.
If you didn't know this, then that's fine. If you did know this, you are scare-mongering (not to mention being COMPLETELY intellectually dishonest). I'm not assuming you knew it, however. Benefit of the doubt ;)
Bobby
oh and all the lax regulations and the credit default swaps was all done under the clinton administration.
Gary please explain how housing leads to consumer spending? We currently live in an enviornment where the consumer can no longer use their house as an ATM cash extractor. I always thought employment/wages was the first indicator of consumer spending? We are currently going through an "L" shaped recession. This means once we hit bottom and start the recovery growth will be minimal. Japan 1990
Trader Bob, I meant the drop in housing created the credit crisis which also wiped out trillions in assets, which led to job loss which led to a drop in consumer spending. However you look at it, somebody pulled the drain plug.
I was pretty negative on Bush, particularly on illegal immigration. Living in S. CA for 26 yrs. and then moving back to my home state of IA, there's about 100X or so more Hispanics than there was when I left in '75. The locals think there's a problem! I said, "try S. CA." This economy mess is no more Bush's than if it improves under. O'Bama. All the unintelligent people in this country will bow down to him and deify him! My sister has lived in Illinois for over 20 yrs. and she said he didn't do ONE thing for Illinois other than vote 'present' most of the time. One man doesn't make or break the economy. Look at the mortgage banking industry, the SEC, the credit card companies...
Thinking O'Bama will fix everything is utter supidity. Hel, McCain couldn't have done any better. NOBODY could/can fix this mess other than the idiots that created it!
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