I remember last year like it was yesterday. We had some friends over here at the ranch, and we all sat in the theater and watched Dick Clark's New Years. We all looked aghast at each other as the perpetually young Mr. Clark burble and babble, the unfortunate victim of a stroke. It was hard to watch, and amidst all of the hooping and hollering all of the revelers were doing at Times Square, I honestly wondered if they knew what 2008 was going to bring.
2008 is like when you discover a leak on your boat, and you know it is starting to gain water, but you don't know where the leak is, nor would you have the tools to fix it once you found it. We found the leak, and the leak was easy credit and a complete abandonment of reasonable expectations.
2009 is the year the ship sinks. There are 4 million homes about to enter foreclosure, and massive tax bailouts for companies that aren't viable. 2008 was the worst year in the stock market in 70ish years (since the Great Depression) and both job losses and house price losses are accelerating.
The world should not be about money and number of ipods or the latest cellphones, and this is a massive whap on the head reminder. But the loss of homes, retirement funds, insurance coverage, credit card use, etc. is not the reason 2009 is going to be a hell of a year. It's because of instability.
As I write this, Hamas and Israel are in full-scale attack. People are dressing up like Santa and shooting families. A woman who was about to have her home taken set it on fire with herself inside. The reason this happens is because people have lost hope, and feel that there are no options.
I submit that 2009 will be a far easier year to handle if you expect the absolute worst to happen, and lower your expectations drastically. I have a good idea what the markets and economy is going to do, and I'm pretty sure what is going to happen to the U.S. Dollar. And the loss of jobs. If you play this scenario in your head clearly, two things will happen: you will strike a balance between being prepared for tomorrow, as well as enjoying today because disaster hasn't really struck in full-force yet.
So for pre-visualization, here's what I expect for 2009:U.S. Real Estate - half of today's value. Stocks - hard to say. USD - collapse a lot. Job losses - huge.
So having said that, doesn't today feel like a comparatively nice day?
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- the great depression lasted 18 years
- ted haggard on publicity tour
- A Quote From Karl Marx
- mad about leaving in a wheelchair
- Natural Harvest - "Semen Based Recipes"
- in london, a hugely successful ad campaign
- "create your own economy"
- We need China to buy our Treasuries!
- 524,000 jobs lost last month - biggest drop since ...
- Why Inflation Is Desirable To The U.S. Economy
- Gary's daily scripture reading - this one from Deu...
- Hamas, Israel and Iran
- 2009
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7 comments:
Maybe that's the same theory behind Revelations. Just make it all sound like the things are going to be so bad that people will start clinging to anything that even vaguely resembles good news.
Gary, would you have any timeframes?
"So for pre-visualization, here's what I expect for 2009:U.S. Real Estate - half of today's value. Stocks - hard to say. USD - collapse a lot. Job losses - huge."
Now I am excited for New Years Day 2010 so we can look back and see that you were wrong about each one of these predictions
US real estate half, is just plain crazy, espcially if you were to belive that, that it would happen in a year. It is down 18% now.
USD "collapes a lot" not sure what that means, or what value "alot" is. However the US dollar ended the year up over 5 %, and it was a pretty bad year. 62% of the worlds money is in the US dollar, so alot of people out there with a lot of money are going to make sure that doesn't happen.
Job losses "huge" once again, not sure what you consider "huge" but if you are convience that they are going to make huge bailouts, wouldn't that slow job loss, and how about Obama, he is going to do nothing
Here are my predictions.
US dollar just fine, the world is still going to revolve around the USD
Job losses, I think they will increase slightly (1-1.5% more) before it starts to go the other way no later than the middle of 09, the market is up partially due to employment numbers better than expected.
Real Estate, I personally start to see some postive signs. Prices and Mortgate rates are dropping. If that 4.5% plan goes through people will jump all over that. Also prices are starting to get low enough investors are starting to step in as there will be some nice profits made.
People need a place to live simple as that. Prices can only drop so far before investors step in and rent out property. I predict a turnaround in 6-9 months, values will start to increase by the end of the year.
"and how about Obama, he is going to do nothing"
I predict you are COMPLETELY wrong about that.
there was supposed to be a question mark after the obama, he is going to do something, that was my point
whew. :)
I for one, believe he is going to do a lot... and make things better for many many people in this country. Its going to take time, but I trust his intellect, ideology (mostly) and his capacity to lead this country through this greed-inspired quagmire.
Predictions are a dime a dozen but there is no value in reading your blog or your predictions if you don't offer ideas on possible solutions. I'd suggest that you layout what you intend on doing based on your predictions.
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