Monday, February 2, 2009

U.S. dependency on foreign markets

For the U.S. to come out of this, it has to work on being less dependent on the foreign markets. The U.S. buys most of it's manufactured goods from China, then China lends us the money to buy more of their goods. This is not sustainable.
We purchase a majority of our energy from foreign sources, who then control a large portion of our banking (e.g. Saudi's and Citi). The U.S. is basically 'owned' right now by foreign countries. If China stops buying our Treasuries (and I feel this is inevitable) we would have nowhere to go to sell our debt other than our very own Federal Reserve. In effect, we would then be printing money to then borrow it. This is not sustainable.
Those of you who follow my investment outlook have always heard me say that for an investment to make sense it has to have value, and the business model must be sustainable. If it doesn't have value, and only appears to have value, that - my friends - is an I.O.U. And the entire banking system right now is run on I.O.U.'s.
Not sustainable.
So what is sustainable? 1) Natural resources. In a growing world, it will always need natural resources. 2)Innovation. This is where the U.S. shines. The United States protects intellectual property and rewards its inventors. While I must say I am super happy with the E.U. in enforcing my patent rights quickly and effectively, the U.S. has a stronger culture for innovation. Having lived in France, I know that there is a healthy skepticism for people who want to start something new. Old Europe is comfortable with the status quo, and there is a wave of cynicism against anybody trying to shake up industries or ideas.
Here's how the U.S. can recover: 1) It has to - without resorting to protectionism - find a way to keep manufacturing within our borders (sustainable). 2)It has to become energy independent.
This is where I think Obama's plan has some good traction. If these jobs in the coming bailout plan spur innovation in green technology, this does two things, obviously, it reduces our energy dependence and it keeps dollars from buying exports. There is a multi-trillion dollar industrial payoff in repurposing our efforts to green technology. This isn't an overnight plan, but it is the right plan. The thing that I worry about is that the U.S. will go insolvent before the stimulus package can take hold. And with nobody to buy our Treasuries, there goes the dollar.
This reminds me of the Cardinals vs. the Pats. It's a race against the clock - can the U.S. change from completely dependent on International markets BEFORE the International markets stop sustaining the U.S.'s transitional funding needs? I hope so - we have to give it all we've got at this 11th hour. The alternative is we lose the country, and China owns it.

5 comments:

Jared Spencer said...

who is the largest manufacture in the world?

Jared Spencer said...

Chinese Start Investing More Money Abroad

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28990144

Unknown said...

You mean the "Cardinals vs. the Steelers", right?

Gary Fong, Author said...

steelers yes

Lightinspire said...

I'm still waiting for all the criticism over Obama and his stimulus package which dwarf's Bush's plan..last night it was announce he is thinking of each person getting $2500.00...let's hear it people..he is doing more and more like Bush and even more and yet no one is against it?? Hummm....typica.