The world markets are in a collapse today, and gold just hit $1,000 an ounce. For goodness sake, all of these people calling this a "possible prolonged recession" sound so silly to me. Someone is going to call this the black depression soon, so it might as well start now. Here's why:
I believe that the USD is going to collapse (I've said this for so long now), and when that happens - with the deficit as large as it is, and with the Fed having to buy our long treasuries (because we don't have enough customers to buy what we need to finance all of these bailout plans) the USD is going to collapse.
When that happens, energy prices are going to soar (since we import our energy) and cities won't be able to power lighting or heating at night. Thus, the Black Depression.
I really like Obama as a leader and motivator, but these bailout plans endanger the dollar and stoke inflation. I would do things a little different, I would bring the troops home - all of them, right now, and put them to work within our borders. We will need them soon.
Who is going to win when this is all over? You may not like this answer so let me smooth it by asking you a question.
There are two entities - one (A) spends more than it makes, and borrows money to live a lavish lifestyle. The other entity saves more than it makes, and lends the savings to (A) and charges them interest. Can A sustain - borrowing money forever from B? Or in the end, will B "own" A?
A is the USA, and B is China
22 comments:
Lets talk about Obama and his team really dropping the ball, a little clarity please????
How about the payoff aka stimulus, you are such a hypocrite for not having a fit over this plan.
Gold is not at $1000, it hit it and then dropped. are you concerned about dare i say a gold "bubble"
gold etf's are getting very popular, somone buys the etf, so the eft buys gold, gold price goes up, etf goes up so people buy more of the etf, which raises the price of gold. it's a big circle.
the story should be more not that gold is close to 1000, is that why is it not 2500
also they keep saying gold at 1000 is a record, however adjusted for inflation gold would have to hit 2200
i still think if it doesn't break through 1000 it is going to drop to 800, short term hedge, simple as that. preservation not profit.
There are two entities - one (A) spends more than it makes, and borrows money to live a lavish lifestyle. The other entity saves more than it makes, and lends the savings to (A) and charges them interest. Can A sustain - borrowing money forever from B? Or in the end, will B "own" A?
Is A the united states, or a citizen? Are you saying our debt is larger than our GDP?
And where do you think B gets a large chunk of the money, maybe from A
China has 20 million jobs lost last year.
The stock market is down today and has come back quite a bit in the last hour due to the lack of clarity from the Obama admin, Geithner is MIA, if he came out and said banks were not going to be nationalized, and preferred shareholders were going to be preserved, you would see a massive rally today.
The Markets are down because the Obama administration is doing an absolute terrible job, no details, no clarity, and the market thinks the stimulus is hardly a stimulus but just payback to all of the special interests and labor unions that got him elected.
'The Markets are down because the Obama administration is doing an absolute terrible job, no details, no clarity, and the market thinks the stimulus is hardly a stimulus but just payback to all of the special interests and labor unions that got him elected."
I am glad that smarter people than you are in charge.
You're just being a sore loser.
The sooner we nationalize a few big banks the better.
Gary has read the situation over the last year like he has a crystal ball. I, for one, take what he says fairly seriously. And it scares the H*** out of me.
a sore loser?
do you honestly think geithner is handling this well, you don't think he could step forward today and give a little clarity. where is he, i wish he would come out of hiding.
you are not a little bothered by the amount of pork in the "stimulus"
There is no way physically possible to nationalize the banks, and why in the world would you want that. if they did, which they can't it would collapse the us.
did I vote for Obama, no, and I excited about my taxes being raised, no
but now that he is president, i support him, i have nothing against him and I truly hope he can do something to help the economy. do I think he is doing a good job, no, but I am hardly the only one as he approval rating is dropping quickly as well as is support for the "stimulus"
So much for "transparency" as Obama said he was going to be. How in the world is this stimulus package going to create jobs by making an ATV trail, providing golf carts and a swimming pool? He tried to hide that so he has already dropped the ball. Nanch Polusi said and promised there would be no earmarks..there are tons of them, so much for the version of truth as stated by democrats..
everyone read this. the end is the kicker:
It's Gloomy and It'll Be Worse Ahead (from Time Magazine)
Some excerpts:
A Ford Motor Co. spokesman last week called the auto industry's slump a "depression."
As always, nonwhites have suffered the most from the recession. Herbert Hill, who is in charge of labor affairs at the NAACP, says that unemployment among the black population in some major cities is approaching 30% or even 40%. Says Hill: "For the black community, this is a full-scale depression. Many of the gains that we have made over the past 10 years are being eroded." At the same time, community-action-program funds are drying up.
Some consumers are so alarmed that they are muttering about a return of the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Ford and Chrysler announced massive new layoffs for this month. Automakers now plan to close at least 14 assembly plants and put as many as 230,000 production workers, clerks, accountants and executives out of work, and about 20% of General Motors' U.S. employees will be idle in March.
But the decline is no longer confined to autos and home building, which is down 33% this month, as it has been for most of the last year. In classic fashion, the recession has begun to work its way through the entire economy. Although demand for home freezers is still high, with families stocking up on food to beat rising prices, sales of other major appliances—TV sets, washing machines, dryers, vacuum cleaners—are turning sick, and layoffs are spreading in the plants that make them.
The current recession has also shown a greater capacity to frighten the public than any of the previous postwar downturns. The next report of the University of Michigan's respected Survey of Consumer Confidence, due this week, will show the deepest pessimism about the economy since the survey began in 1946.
Are even harder times coming? Probably. The recession still has some way to go, and though economists fore see an upturn some tune by next year, it is difficult to pick its timing and predict how far down the economy will go before it turns back up. Indeed, the course of the recession so far is something of a lesson in the hazards of economic forecasting: its length and virulence have surprised almost everyone.
Where's Bottom? In any case, the recession has by now picked up enough momentum to drag the economy lower before it turns up again. Right now, economists are watching closely a decline that is just beginning in spending by companies for new plants, machinery and other capital goods.
MP: This was from the December 9, 1974 edition of Time Magazine, and the article was written towards the end of the Nov. 1973 - March 1975 recession. Note: I altered some of the text above so that the specific time period was not obvious. Notice the distinct similarities to the reporting about today's economy.
HT: Ken Duetsch
'but I am hardly the only one as he approval rating is dropping quickly as well as is support for the "stimulus""
hahahhahahha
Obama job approval: 69 percent
President Obama is holding onto a robust 69 percent job approval figure, while congressional Republicans register a 70 percent disapproval rating, according to a just-released Research 2000/Dailykos poll.
The president, on the road constantly this week, appears to be pulling up the approval rating of his party and its leaders. By a 43 percent-to-39 percent margin, those polled by Research 2000 approved of the job done by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, is less popular. He gets approving marks from 33 percent of those polled, and a disapproval rating of 42 percent.
The numbers for Republicans in Congress continue to crater. Congressional Republicans actually dropped a an approval point - from 19 percent to 18 percent - while registering a disapproval rating of 70 percent.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, gets an approval figure of just 23 percent, with 51 percent disapproving his performance. House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, is even less popular, with 17 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval.
(http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/162445.asp?source=rss)
you so funny jared.
I feel like all I ever have about this topic is a dumb question, but what I wonder is, isn't it all relative? I mean aren't other countries in difficult financial straights as well?And what does it mean if everyone else is hurting too? Yesterday the story was, that 70,000 factories had closed recently in China. Not people- factories. Or according to the article, 20 million people lost jobs in a short time. Now some are predicting anarchy in the streets in the US, but isn't it likely to happen in a lot of other parts of the world too? I guess I 'm not sure what it would mean to have China "own" the US, although it doesn't sound like such a great idea. Is it financial sell off, is it loss of negotiating power for just about everything, is it a CHinese Guantanamo Bay on Catalina Island? Is it WW3? I guess I don't know what's next and really want to know if anyone does, Gary's been right about a lot- but I keep looking for concrete answers about what to do, yet still feel like I am the last one to know how to plan ahead at this time after watching my losses reach 40% on my retirement this past year. I always want to work smart and right now I have no clue what that entails.
David, I don't have good answers anymore. I did when things were ridiculously crazy (real estate prices) and I said either don't buy, or sell, and honestly it's probably too late to do that. I said to buy Gold, and it just passed $1000 for only the second time ever. Let me think about it but if anybody has any good answers, we are all ears!
February 19, 2009
SUN-TIMES STAFF
ROCHESTER, N.Y. — Americans named President Obama as their No. 1 hero, followed by Jesus Christ and Martin Luther King, in a new Harris poll.
The latest poll from Rasmussen shows that Obama's approval rating has dropped to 57%, an all-time low since Obama assumed the presidency. Similarly, Obama's disapproval rating has increased to 41%, which is a new high.
Despite the media's insistence that Obama is spectacularly popular, the reality is that Obama's approval ratings are virtually identical to those of George W. Bush at the comparable stage of Bush's presidency. And as the economy continues to tank, we can expect that Obama will be below 50% in a matter of time.
And Rasmussen is a GOP pollster.
I'll bet you $5 that Obama's numbers average at least 10 points higher than Bush at the end of his first term.
and ps:
http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=1458
Jan 2001
Bush: 60%
Jan 2009
Obama: 79%
Bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Wrong Answer Jared.
I'll take that bet, and I'll make sure in case the US dollar crashes and i'm living in a hut learning to fish to survive, i'll pay you in gold, however it may be just a sliver of a coin for what it will be worth then but I will make you whole on that $5 bucks, as for you, ill take cash regardless what it is worth at the time. i'm feeling good about the dollar
Obama's January number was high and then it dropped. significantly
I did a quick google search and this is what I found
First-Term Average 61%
• 2004 Average 49%
• 2003 Average 59%
• 2002 Average 72%
• 2001 Average 69%
So to be clear you are saying his first term average approval rating is going to be 71% or higher?
You can go ahead and send that $5 dollars now if you want
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
59%
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29374554
dollar gains broadly as Safe-Haven demand rises
Not sure where you get your data Jared...
http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm
How you get anything NEAR the 60's as an average for the end of his first term, I don't know.
ps:
GALLUP POLL: OBAMA APPROVAL AT 63%
Posted: Monday, February 23, 2009 2:02 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: White House, Barack Obama
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
According to the latest Gallup poll, President Obama's approval rating is now at 63%, which is down five percentage points from his initial rating in January. Also, his disapproval number has doubled from 12% in January to 24% now.
But be careful if you're trying to draw a dramatic conclusion about this slight downward tick. The only group of voters that has moved away from Obama are Republicans, who went from 41% approval in January to 30% now. However, Democrats' approval has remained steady (88% then, 89% now). And -- perhaps most importantly -- so has approval among independents (63% then, 63% now).
(http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/02/23/1805411.aspx)
Um... Jared:
Gallup's Presidential job approval rating jumped to 67%.
Obama's approval rebound is due to increased support from all political groups, but especially from independents and Republicans, whose support had been waning. Over the past week, independents' approval of Obama dropped from 62% to 54%, but is now back to 62%. There has been a sharp increase in support among Republicans, from 27% to 42%. Democrats' support for Obama was already extremely high at 86%, but even this has climbed slightly, to 90% in the latest polling.
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