To those of you who have followed my blog for years, you'll agree that I've been remarkably accurate at financial forecasting. I told you a couple of years ago that Citigroup was hopelessly overleveraged, and now that it has gone below a buck a share, it's going to get nationalized and anybody who owns the stock will lose their whole investment.
I hope I had saved some of you from buying financials back when I said it was ridiculous. My investing forecasts come from really really simple rules, that I've explained before - and they cannot be broken. I may not know the exact day something is going to happen, but I'm smack on sure that imbalances will resolve in a certain way with a certain severity. It's like weather forecasting. They find out where the "high pressure zones" are, and they know from that where the wind will blow. Same with finances, and I was watching on the Las Vegas news and though prices are nearly half what they were in 2006, the newsman said that prices should recover to their 2006 prices within two years.
Bull fucking shit. You dumb ass bastard. You have no fucking idea what you are talking about. Real estate prices - when they hit bottom, they stay at the bottom for a long time. Bottoms are not like peaks. Peaks hit in a day then bob down, bottoms stay shitty for a long time before they start to buoy up due to pressures like 1) a growing economy or 2) a growing demographic. NEITHER ARE COMING ANY TIME SOON - and real estate prices, are not going to reach 2006 levels for at LEAST another 45-90 years. In fact, Real Estate is going to drop probably another half - OR MORE.
I am just absolutely sick of people saying that things are going to be fine soon. I'm running off to an appointment, or I would say why things are not going to be anywhere near fine in the U.S. for at least 45 years - if ever, and I am 100% right. I am very sorry to say this - China will be fine! But the next to go will be the USD, and with that will go everything else. I'm sorry! But it's true!
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4 comments:
Haven't been around too much since you banned me from your other blog :P Fair enough, I understand why ;) Everyone was probably a tad too emotional and I'm sure I could be included in that...
Open question - not an objection (as I'm no expert in this stuff). Why is the pound trading at $1.40 right now? The euro at $1.25. The dollar hasn't really dropped against the Yuan. If this is all true, why is our money becoming MORE valuable compared to other legit currencies? Heck, a couple times ago when I was in England, it was nearly $2 per pound. Europe was above $1.40 per euro. I was basically banning shooting weddings in England - now I'm opening up to british clients again :)
I know this might not be all completely connected, but if we are doing so terribly, why is our dollar worth so much more than it has been in comparison to the UK and Europe - and basically the same value everywhere else?
Hey Bobby - you prick.
OK the USD is artificially and unexplicably high. It is a temporary condition that will correct, just like housing prices.
Take's one to know one...
BOOM!!! :P
How long is "temporary"? Again, not a challenge. A real question.
Still, I don't understand why our money would be doing so well. Against the pound, for example, since July of '08, it started dropping in comparison to us. Every month that our economy was deemed as doing worse, they're currency did worse against ours. It seems odd that if things were this uniquely bad, that our currency would GROW in value in total opposition to popular opinion about our money.
Every month the whole world has said we are doing worse we have consistently and significantly done better. When would you think this trend should stop?
our money is doing well because the US is the safest place to invest money in the world. Period. It is not gold, not China, not Canada. Our debt even the new debt to GDP ratio is the lowest of all of the big countries by far.
With stocks being volatile US investors are buying treasuries which they typically were not due to the lower returns vs the potential of stocks. All of those rich countries need places to put cash to work and the US is the place to do it.
Every other country is doing the same thing that we are. We were the first in this mess and will be the first out.
Gold will never get above 1400 because of the IMF
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